Research progress of next-year earthquake forecasts in the world

The next-year earthquake forecasts have an important practical demand in preparedness and mitigation of earthquake disasters. In order to reflect the research progress of 1-year earthquake forecast models in the world in recent years, we systematically organized the earthquake probabilistic forecast models, physics-based forecast models and hybrid forecast models, and analyzed them from the perspectives of method principle, evaluation of forecasting efficiency, deployment and application. The results show that the total number of 1-year earthquake forecast models and their reference models in the world is relatively small. Moreover, the modeling principle is mainly based on the basic laws of statistical seismology such as the G-R relationship, which indicates that the basic theoretical framework and key technical system of earthquake forecasts has not been mature enough. It may be related to the imperfect interpretation of the corresponding earthquake seismogenic mechanism and the difficulties of the establishment of physics-based forecast models.