• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P
刘月,吴忠良,张永仙. 2024. 2024年1月1日能登半岛MW7.5地震作为一个可能的“龙王”事件. 地球与行星物理论评(中英文),55(0):1-8. doi: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2024-003
引用本文: 刘月,吴忠良,张永仙. 2024. 2024年1月1日能登半岛MW7.5地震作为一个可能的“龙王”事件. 地球与行星物理论评(中英文),55(0):1-8. doi: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2024-003
Liu Y, Wu Z L, Zhang Y X. 2024. The January 1, 2024, Noto Peninsula, Japan, MW7.5 earthquake as a plausible 'Dragon King' event. Reviews of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 55(0): 1-8 (in Chinese). doi: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2024-003
Citation: Liu Y, Wu Z L, Zhang Y X. 2024. The January 1, 2024, Noto Peninsula, Japan, MW7.5 earthquake as a plausible 'Dragon King' event. Reviews of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 55(0): 1-8 (in Chinese). doi: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2024-003

2024年1月1日能登半岛MW7.5地震作为一个可能的“龙王”事件

The January 1, 2024, Noto Peninsula, Japan, MW7.5 earthquake as a plausible 'Dragon King' event

  • 摘要: 本文试图探讨,从“龙王”理论的角度看,2024年1月1日日本能登半岛MW7.5地震是否可被视为一次“龙王”事件. 本文分析了日本气象厅(JMA)2004年以来的地震矩张量解目录,针对样本数不够多的情况,用“级序分析”方法确定这一MW7.5事件是否显著偏离Gutenberg-Richter幂律. 结果表明在2006至2024年期间,MW7.5地震还不能被视为显著的“龙王”事件;但在2021至2024年期间,该地震作为一次“龙王”事件特点十分明显,这一结果似乎与2020年底以来出现了复杂的前兆行为的报道吻合,标志着“龙王”事件的某种可预报性. 本文建议,根据以往的研究结果,对这次地震的震源过程和余震序列进行详细刻画,附之以对地震前兆的回溯性研究,或可有助于“地震龙王”理论本身的发展和地震预测研究的进步. 本文还讨论了“黑天鹅”事件、“龙王”事件及“灰犀牛”事件的相互关系,这几个概念是近年来减灾领域讨论较多的概念.

     

    Abstract: We discussed the relation among 'black swan', 'gray rhino' and 'dragon king', three important concepts in the study for the reduction of natural disaster risks, in which a 'black swan' refers to 'an event that, seems to us, on the basis of our limited experience, to be impossible' (Taleb, 2007), a 'gray rhino' refers to 'an event that is dangerous, obvious, and highly probable' (Wucker, 2016), and a 'dragon king' is defined as 'an event so extreme that it lies outside a power-law distribution' (Sornette and Ouillon, 2012), all of which have some misinterpretations. We investigated whether the January 1, 2024, Noto Peninsula, Japan, MW7.5 earthquake, which punctuated the intense and long-lasting swarm since recent years, can be regarded as a 'black swan' or a 'dragon king', which seems an interesting question in the study of earthquake forecast and prediction. The answer to the question whether or not this MW7.5 earthquake is a 'black swan' depends on the observer, by the definition of 'black swan': in the sense that this earthquake unexpectedly punctuated the intense and long-lasting swarm, it is; while in the sense that there have been historical earthquakes with comparable magnitudes in the same region, it is not. Whether or not this earthquake is a 'dragon king' event is the main topic of this paper, which depends on the analysis of earthquake data. We analyzed the seismic moment tensor catalogue of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) which has started since 2004. We inspected the rank-ordering plot or Zipf distribution to inspect whether the MW7.5 event behaves as an outlier which significantly deviates from the Gutenberg-Richter power law scaling. We obtained that for the period 2006 to 2024, the MW7.5 earthquake cannot be regarded as a significant 'dragon king' event, while for the period 2021 to 2024 the earthquake can be regarded as a 'dragon king' event significantly, which seems consistent with the report that complex precursory behavior has occurred since December 2020, implying the predictability of this 'dragon king' event. We suggest that detailed study of this earthquake as well as its aftershock sequence, based on the previous results of investigation which provided with good pictures of fluid migration, silent earthquakes, deformation, and earthquakes with different magnitudes, plus retrospective case study of the precursor-like anomalies in this relatively isolated system of seismicity, may contribute to the theory of the mechanism and prediction of a 'seismic dragon king'.

     

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