Fault interaction and earthquake triggering mechanisms: Progress and prospects
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摘要: 断层相互作用与地震触发关系研究是震源物理学领域的热点问题，能够帮助认识强震的孕育过程与物理机理，在地震危险性分析与预测研究中也有良好的应用前景. 前人的综述文章从应力触发的基本原理、方法、适用性及多个震例研究的角度，提供了详细的阐述，然而从地震活动性分析这一角度对地震触发的介绍并不详尽，也未对这两个角度的结合和互补提供进一步的探讨. 本文从物理模型和统计模型两个角度，综述了过去几十年针对断层相互作用和地震触发机制研究的成果与进展；通过介绍速率-状态摩擦律，展现这一科学问题的内在统一性，并对目前存在的问题和未来的可能研究方向进行了梳理和展望. 从物理模型角度, 着重分析了断层相互作用来源的几个重要机制：静态应力触发、动态应力触发和黏弹性应力触发，以及计算的基本原理和方法. 在统计模型方面，介绍了地震活动性分析的基本原理和方法，重点分析了ETAS模型和b值在断层相互作用和地震触发机制中的应用. 从两个模型结合的角度，指出两者互相验证的统一内涵以及速率-状态摩擦律的基本原理和方法. 分析指出通过库仑应力计算和ETAS模型这两种不同的角度，可以综合研究多断层或地震之间的应力相互作用，并提供交叉验证，增加结果的可靠性；应用速率-状态摩擦律可以回溯性地研究地震序列的发生过程，为认识地震触发关系和断层相互作用提供了新的视角.Abstract: Research on fault interaction and earthquake triggering, which is a hot issue in the field of source physics, can facilitate understanding of the underlying mechanisms of strong earthquakes and also has good application prospects in earthquake risk analysis and prediction research. Previous review articles provided detailed explanations from the perspectives of basic principles, methods, and applicability, as well as multiple earthquake case studies of stress triggering. However, the introduction to earthquake triggering from the perspective of seismicity analysis is not exhaustive, and the combination and complementarity of these two perspectives are not provided in detail. This paper summarizes the achievements and progress of research on fault interaction and earthquake triggering mechanism through the past few decades from the perspectives of physical and statistical models. The current challenges and possible future directions are reviewed and evaluated. From the perspective of the physical model, three important mechanisms of sources of fault interaction are analyzed: static stress triggering, dynamic stress triggering, and viscoelastic stress triggering, as well as the basic principles and methods of calculation. In the aspect of the statistical model, the basic principles and methods of seismicity analysis are introduced, and applications of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and b-value in fault interaction and earthquake triggering mechanism are analyzed. From the perspective of the combination of these two models, the unified connotation of mutual verification and the basic principle of the rate-and-state friction law are introduced. The analysis points out that the stress interaction between multiple faults or earthquakes can be comprehensively studied through the two different schools of Coulomb stress calculation and the ETAS model and that cross-validation can increase the reliability of the results. Retroactive application of rate-and-state friction law can provide a new perspective for understanding the earthquake triggering relationship and fault interaction.
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图 1 断层相互作用示意图（修改自Chéry et al., 2001）. 构造加载导致断层A发生位错u，应力降由破裂尺寸L、W和位错u控制. 由于地球介质的连续性，断层A的位错会在其周围介质产生应力扰动，从而断层B受到应力扰动
$ {\delta }\tau $ ，进而影响断层B上地震的发生. 与此同时，断层A位错产生的地震波在地球介质中传播过程时，会对断层B的应力状态产生动态扰动. 另一方面，断层A深部介质（下地壳、上地幔等）的黏弹性形变，导致震后随时间变化的黏弹性应力扰动，可能会持续几十年甚至上百年Figure 1. Schematic diagram of fault interaction (modified from Chéry et al., 2001). Structural loading causes dislocation u to occur on fault A, and the stress drop is controlled by the rupture dimensions L and W and the coseismic slip u. Due to the continuity of the Earth medium, the dislocation of fault A will generate stress disturbance in the surrounding medium, so fault B will be subject to stress disturbance
$ {\delta }\tau $ and then affect the occurrence of earthquakes on fault B. At the same time, the seismic wave generated by the dislocation of fault A will dynamically disturb the stress state of fault B during the propagation process in the Earth medium. On the other hand, the viscoelastic deformation of the deep medium (lower crust, upper mantle, etc.) of fault A leads to viscoelastic stress disturbance that changes with time after the earthquake and may last for decades or even hundreds of years
图 2 1979 年 3 月 15 日 Homestead Valley 地震序列（ML = 4.9、5.2、4.5、4.8）的库仑应力改变与余震分布（修改自King et al., 1994）. 白色直线为发震断层，白色圆圈表示余震. 红色表示库仑应力增强区，紫色表示库仑应力减小区
Figure 2. Coulomb stress changes and distribution of aftershocks for the March 15, 1979, Homestead Valley earthquake sequence (ML = 4.9, 5.2, 4.5, 4.8) (modified from King et al., 1994). The straight white line is the seismogenic fault, and the white circle is the aftershock. Red indicates areas of increased Coulomb stress, and purple indicates areas of decreased Coulomb stress
图 3 Landers地震后各地区（括号内为震中距，单位为km）地震累积数曲线（修改自Hill et al., 1993）. 右侧数字为各地区总地震数目，两条短竖线分别表示Petrolia（Cape Mendocino）M=7.1地震和 Landers M=7.3地震的发震时刻
Figure 3. Cumulative number curves of earthquakes in various regions after the Landers earthquake (the epicentral distance in km is shown in brackets) (modified from Hill et al., 1993). The number on the right is the total number of earthquakes in each region, and the two short vertical lines represent the occurrence times of the Petrolia (Cape Mendocino) M = 7.1 earthquake and the Landers M = 7.3 earthquake, respectively
图 4 Hector Mine地震初始破裂点
$ \mathrm{\Delta }\mathrm{C}\mathrm{F}\mathrm{S} $ 随时间的变化（修改自Freed and Lin, 2001）. （a）假设黏性流变只发生在下地壳的情况；（b）假设黏性流变主要发生在上地幔的情况Figure 4.
$ \mathrm{\Delta }\mathrm{C}\mathrm{F}\mathrm{S} $ at the initial rupture point of the Hector Mine earthquake over time (modified from Freed and Lin, 2001): (a) Assuming that viscous rheology occurs only in the lower crust and (b) assuming that viscous rheology occurs mainly in the upper mantle
图 5 全球地震活动性分布（数据和图来源于International Seismological Center, ISC,
http://www.isc.ac.uk/ ）Figure 5. Distribution of global seismicity (data and graphs are from the International Seismological Center, ISC,
http://www.isc.ac.uk/ )
图 6 地震之间触发关系示意图. （a）地震发生的逻辑关系. （b）地震发生的时间序列. （c）地震触发的概率，仅以地震A、B、C、D、E为例（修改自Marsan and Lengliné, 2010）. 其中灰色方框的数字表示第二个地震是被前一个地震触发的概率. 对除了地震A以外的其他地震（B-Q），被其他地震触发的概率之和应为100%
Figure 6. Schematic diagram of the triggering relationship between earthquakes. (a) Logical relationship of earthquake occurrence. (b) Time series of earthquake occurrence. (c) Probability of earthquake triggering, taking earthquakes A, B, C, D, and E as examples (modified from Marsan and Lengliné, 2010). The number in the gray box indicates the probability that the second earthquake is triggered by the previous earthquake. For earthquakes (B-Q), other than earthquake A, the sum of the probabilities triggered by other earthquakes should be 100%
图 7 库仑应力计算与地震活动性分析对比结果，以2008年汶川地震和2017年九寨沟地震为例（修改自Jia et al., 2018）. （a）不同断层模型和参数下汶川地震对九寨沟地震的库仑应力变化，模型A、B分别为Ji和Hayes（2008）、Wang等（2011）的断层模型. （b）九寨沟地区累积背景概率曲线（黑色折线），红色虚线表示汶川地震前的拟合结果，绿色虚线表示汶川地震后的拟合结果，可以看出汶川地震后九寨沟地区背景地震活动性显著降低
Figure 7. Comparison results of Coulomb stress calculation and seismicity analysis, taking the 2008 Wenchuan and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes as examples (modified from Jia et al., 2018). (a) Coulomb stress changes from the Wenchuan earthquake to the Jiuzhaigou earthquake under different fault models and parameters. Models A and B are the fault models of Ji and Hayes (2008) and Wang et al. (2011), respectively. (b) Cumulative background probability curve (black broken line) in the Jiuzhaigou area. The red dotted line represents the fitting results before the Wenchuan earthquake, and the green dotted line represents the fitting results after the Wenchuan earthquake. The background seismicity in the Jiuzhaigou area decreased significantly after the Wenchuan earthquake
图 8 应力加载速率变化和应力变化引起的地震活动性变化示意图（修改自Jia et al., 2020）. （a）应力加载速率变化会产生类似于震群（b）的地震活动性变化；（c）应力变化会产生类似于余震序列（d）的地震活动性变化
Figure 8. Schematic diagram of changes in stress loading rate and seismicity caused by stress changes (modified from Jia et al., 2020). (a) Changes in stress loading rate will produce changes in seismicity similar to earthquake swarms (b); (c) Changes in stress will produce changes in seismicity similar to aftershock sequences (d)
表 1 不同研究给出的2008年汶川地震引起的2017年九寨沟地震震中位置的库仑应力变化
Table 1. Signal of ΔCFS near the epicenter of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake induced by the Wenchuan earthquake by different researchers
库仑应力
变化正/负断层模型 接收断层 摩擦系数 解析深度 参考文献 正 王卫民等（2008） 走向/倾角/滑动角：332°/84°/5° $\; \mu^{\prime}=0.4 $ 6, 20 km Shan等（2017） Ji和Hayes（2008） 空间变化的接收断层 $\; \mu^{\prime}=0.4 $ 10 km Toda等（2008） 有限元方法预测模型（Luo and Liu, 2010） 岷江断层（倾角: 50°） $ \; \mu^{\prime}=0.0,0.8 $ 5, 10 km Luo和Liu（2010） 三角形有限单元模型，
修改自 Shen等（2009）空间变化的接收断层基于虎牙断层（走向/倾角/滑动角：170°/60°/80°） $\; \mu^{\prime}=0.0,0.4,0.8 $ 10, 20, 30 km Hu等（2017） 负 Shen等（2009） 岷江断层（平均走向/倾角/滑动角：357°/75°/45°） $\; \mu^{\prime}=0.4 $ 5, 10, 15 km Wan和Shen （2010） Ji和Hayes（2008）
Li等（2008）
Shen等（2009）
Wang等（2011)
Hashimoto等（2010）
Sladen（2008）走向/倾角/滑动角的平均值：224.57°/37.86°/119.71° $\; \mu=0.5, \; \beta=0.5 $ 10 km Wang J等（2014） Nakamura等（2010） 虎牙断层 $\; \mu=0.7, \; \beta=0.7 $ 15 km Nalbant和McCloskey（2011） Ji和Hayes（2008） 虎牙断层（走向/倾角/滑动角：150°/75°/45°） $\; \mu^{\prime}=0.6 \text{～} 0.8 $ 2.5～20 km Shan等（2009） Ji和Hayes（2008） 虎牙断层（倾角：5°～65°W；滑动角 70°～90°） $\; \mu=0.0 \text{～} 0.8 $ 0～20 km Parsons等（2008） 
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