• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P
毕金孟,蒋长胜,曹付阳. 2023. 震后早期阶段余震预测研究进展. 地球与行星物理论评(中英文),54(5):498-511. doi: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2022-058
引用本文: 毕金孟,蒋长胜,曹付阳. 2023. 震后早期阶段余震预测研究进展. 地球与行星物理论评(中英文),54(5):498-511. doi: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2022-058
Bi J M, Jiang C S, Cao F Y. 2023. Research progress of aftershock forecasting in the early stage after the mainshock. Reviews of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 54(5): 498-511 (in Chinese). doi: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2022-058
Citation: Bi J M, Jiang C S, Cao F Y. 2023. Research progress of aftershock forecasting in the early stage after the mainshock. Reviews of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 54(5): 498-511 (in Chinese). doi: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2022-058

震后早期阶段余震预测研究进展

Research progress of aftershock forecasting in the early stage after the mainshock

  • 摘要: 震后早期快速、准确的余震预测对震后灾害风险应对和采取有效的处置措施十分重要. 震后早期阶段地震目录不完整性是影响现有余震预测方法快速、准确预测的关键因素. 近年来,随着技术和模型的发展,使得震后早期数据缺失阶段的余震预测成为可能. 本文针对震后早期数据缺失阶段难以开展有效的余震预测问题,分别从提升余震检测率角度阐述了匹配滤波技术和深度学习技术,从统计地震学的余震补齐角度阐述了双尺度变换技术,从最大限度利用余震信息实时预测角度阐述了Omi模型和Lippiello模型等研究进展,分析了各类方法的优劣势,并提出了综合解决震后早期数据缺失阶段余震预测“瓶颈期”问题的技术路线,为从事地震检测、余震预测以及震后趋势研判等相关工作的科研人员提供科学参考.

     

    Abstract: Rapid, accurate, and nearly real-time aftershock forecasting has attracted increasing public and social attention in dealing with disaster risk and taking effective disposal measures after the mainshock. Many aftershock forecasting methods are seriously affected by catalogue incompleteness in the early stage after the mainshock, which makes it difficult to carry out aftershock forecasting with a disaster reduction effect in time. In recent years, with the development of technology and models, the forecasting of early aftershocks has become possible. In this study, aiming at the "bottleneck period" of aftershock forecasting in the early stage after the mainshock, we elaborated the matched filtering technology and deep learning technology from the perspective of improving aftershock detection rate, the bi-scale empirical transformation technology from the perspective of statistical seismology, and the research progress of the Omi and Lippiello models from the perspective of maximizing the use of aftershock information for real-time forecasting. We analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of various methods and proposed a technical route to comprehensively solve the "bottleneck period" of aftershock forecasting in the early stage after the mainshock. This study provides a scientific reference for researchers to engage in microearthquake detection, aftershock forecasting, and post-earthquake trend research.

     

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