• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P

全球及中国近海海平面变化趋势研究进展及展望

常乐 孙文科

引用本文: 常乐,孙文科. 2021. 全球及中国近海海平面变化趋势研究进展及展望. 地球与行星物理论评,52(3):266-279
Chang L, Sun W K. 2021. Progress and prospect of sea level changes of global and China nearby seas. Reviews of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 52(3): 266-279

全球及中国近海海平面变化趋势研究进展及展望

doi: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2020-028
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41974093, 41774088, 41331066, 41474059);中国科学院重点部署资助项目(QYZDY-SSW-SYS003)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    常乐(1991-),男,讲师,主要从事海平面变化及卫星重力应用的研究. E-mail:changle114@mails.ucas.ac.cn

    通讯作者:

    孙文科,男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事地震位错理论及应用、重力变化的观测与解释、重力卫星GRACE的应用研究. E-mail:sunw@ucas.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P229

Progress and prospect of sea level changes of global and China nearby seas

Funds: Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41974093, 41774088, 41331066, and 41474059) and the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. QYZDY-SSW-SYS003)
  • 摘要: 海平面变化是全球气候系统变化的一个组成部分,是环境变化的重要指标,也会影响沿海区域及岛屿的生态环境甚至存亡. 全球海平面变化由海水质量变化和比容海平面变化构成. 海水质量变化主要是由于两极冰盖和高山区的冰川融化流入海洋所致;比容海平面变化是由海水的温度和盐度变化所引起的,其中温度变化是最主要的因素. 本文介绍了海平面变化各种监测技术的发展过程,并对海平面变化的研究现状进行了总结. 所有研究成果均表明,近100多年以来,全球海平面一直处于上升态势;近几十年以来,海平面呈现加快上升并且越来越快的趋势. 目前仍然存在一些问题:人们还没有完全掌握海平面变化规律,对未来海平面变化预测有较大不确定性;深海缺乏实测数据;厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)的变化规律以及对海平面的影响;GRACE陆地与海洋信号无法完全分离以及GRACE与GRACE-FO之间的一致性分析等. 这些问题都需要进一步开展研究.

     

  • 图  1  全球平均海平面变化时间序列及不同时段上升速率

    Figure  1.  Global mean sea level change time series and rising rate in different periods

    图  2  测高与GRACE和Argo结果的对比(修改自Yi et al., 2015

    Figure  2.  The comparison of Altimetry, GRACE, and Argo results (modified from Yi et al., 2015)

    图  3  全球海平面变化的组成成分

    Figure  3.  The components of global sea level change

    图  4  船测航线分布图(修改自Chang et al., 2019a

    Figure  4.  Distribution of ship survey tracks (modified from Chang et al., 2019a)

    图  5  全球平均海平面变化观测与未来预测(修改自Sweet et al., 2017). 1800~1993年的全球平均海平面变化由地质和验潮站数据求得;1993年至今由卫星测高数据求得;现今至2100年为预测海平面变化:南极冰融化可能造成的海平面上升(到2100年最高可上升2.4 m)和一般估算上升范围(0.3~1.2 m)

    Figure  5.  Observations and predictions of global mean sea level change (modified from Sweet et al., 2017). GMSL changes from 1800 to 1993 were calculated from geological and tide gauge data; GMSL changes from 1993 to the present were calculated from altimeter data; GMSL changes from the present to 2100 are the prediction change: GMSL possible increase from Antarctic ice melt (up to 2.4 in total rise by 2100) and currently with a projected range of 0.3~1.2 meters

    表  1  格陵兰岛冰对海平面的贡献

    Table  1.   The contribution of Greenland ice to sea level

    数据源时间段海平面贡献/(mm·a−1
    Sasgen等(2012)2003-10~2009-100.66±0.08
    Barletta等(2013)2003-01~2011-120.65±0.06
    Luthcke等(2013)2003-12~2010-120.64±0.03
    Schrama等(2014)2003-02~2013-060.77±0.05
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  南极冰对海平面的贡献(WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018

    Table  2.   The contribution of Antarctic ice to sea level (WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018)

    数据源2005~2015年对海平面
    贡献/(mm·a−1
    更新自Sasgen等(2012)0.47±0.07
    更新自Luthcke等(2013)0.36±0.06
    更新自Wouters等(2013)0.41±0.05
    更新自Schrama等(2014)0.33±0.03
    更新自Velicogna等(2014)0.33±0.08
    更新自Groh 和 Horwath(2016)0.32±0.11
    更新自Wiese等(2017)0.39±0.02
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  总体、质量和比容海平面变化趋势(单位:mm/a)

    Table  3.   Trends of sea level changes in total, water mass, and steric (Unit: mm/a)

    数据源时间段比容质量总和测高
    Chen等(2013)2005-01~2011-120.60±0.271.8±0.472.40±0.542.39±0.48
    Dieng等(2015)2005-01~2013-120.82±0.082.04±0.082.86±0.113.17±0.30
    Yi等(2015)2005-01~2014-070.97±0.182.03±0.253.00±0.313.13±0.44
    Rietbroek等(2016)2002-04~2014-061.38±0.161.08±0.302.46±0.342.74±0.58
    Chambers等(2017)2005-01~2014-120.97±0.152.11±0.363.08±0.393.17±0.67
    Dieng等(2017)2004-01~2015-121.14±0.092.24±0.103.35±0.143.49±0.14
    WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group(2018)2005-01~2015-12 1.3±0.40 2.3±0.193.60±0.403.50±0.20
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-12-27
  • 录用日期:  2021-02-05
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-09-13
  • 刊出日期:  2021-05-01

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