• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P

全球及中国近海海平面变化趋势研究进展及展望

Progress and prospect of sea level changes of global and China nearby seas

  • 摘要: 海平面变化是全球气候系统变化的一个组成部分,是环境变化的重要指标,也会影响沿海区域及岛屿的生态环境甚至存亡. 全球海平面变化由海水质量变化和比容海平面变化构成. 海水质量变化主要是由于两极冰盖和高山区的冰川融化流入海洋所致;比容海平面变化是由海水的温度和盐度变化所引起的,其中温度变化是最主要的因素. 本文介绍了海平面变化各种监测技术的发展过程,并对海平面变化的研究现状进行了总结. 所有研究成果均表明,近100多年以来,全球海平面一直处于上升态势;近几十年以来,海平面呈现加快上升并且越来越快的趋势. 目前仍然存在一些问题:人们还没有完全掌握海平面变化规律,对未来海平面变化预测有较大不确定性;深海缺乏实测数据;厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)的变化规律以及对海平面的影响;GRACE陆地与海洋信号无法完全分离以及GRACE与GRACE-FO之间的一致性分析等. 这些问题都需要进一步开展研究.

     

    Abstract: Sea level change is a part of global climate system change. It is an important indicator of environmental change and affects the ecological environment of coastal areas and islands. Global sea level change is composed of sea water mass change and steric sea level change. The change of sea water mass is mainly caused by the water produced by melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers in high mountain areas flowing into the ocean; the steric sea level change is caused by the change of sea water temperature and salinity, while the temperature variation is the most important factor. The study of sea level change is of great significance to science and society. For a long time, scientists have paid close attention to this issue, carried out a lot of research and made important progresses. This paper describes the development of various monitoring technologies for the sea level change and summarizes the research status of sea level change. All the research results shown that the global mean sea level has been rising for more than 100 years. In recent decades, the sea level has been rising faster and faster. There are still some problems, including (1) people have not fully understand the law of sea level change and there is a great uncertainty in the prediction of future sea level change; (2) measured data in deep sea are not enough; the law of ENSO and its impact on sea level is still not clear; (3) land and ocean signals in GRACE cannot be completely separated and the consistency analysis between GRACE and GRACE-FO needs to be developed. These problems need to be further studied.

     

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