Global review of induced earthquakes in oil and gas production fields
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摘要: 人工诱发地震现象已经有很久的历史. 水库蓄水、采矿、地热开发、从地下提取液体或气体，或将液体注入地球内部都可能诱发地震. 大量地震监测数据与科学分析结果显示：美国俄克拉何马州的地震剧增主要与页岩油气开采的废水回注量相关；加拿大阿尔伯塔省的地震剧增主要与页岩油气开采水力压裂的工作量相关；而荷兰罗宁根天然气田的传统天然气开采也同样诱发了较强的地震活动. 在中国四川盆地的页岩油气开发区域，地震活动近几年也大幅度增强，但目前监测与科研工作较少，对某些地震成因尚有争议. 目前研究诱发地震问题已成为学术界与工业界的一门专业学科. 推断诱发地震，除了分析时空分布与工业活动的相关性之外，本文综述了该领域基于地震学、地质动力学、构造地质学的多种分析方法. 如何在油气开采过程中减少诱发地震的灾害影响成为当前相关各界极为关注的科研问题，本文介绍了多个国家或地区建立的控制诱发地震的管理系统、基于地震大数据的诱发地震概率预测方法，以及基于地球物理与地质信息的综合诱发地震风险评估方法，并对我国控制诱发地震问题提出建设性意见.Abstract: Human-induced earthquakes have a long history, which could be caused by impoundment of reservoirs, underground mining, geothermal operations, oil and gas production, and wastewater injection. Analyses of seismicity and other monitoring data suggest: (1) rapid increase of seismicity during 2009～2015 in Oklahoma, USA was mainly due to deep disposal of wastewater from oil and gas extraction; (2) sharp increase of seismicity during 2009～2015 in Alberta, Canada, shows strong spatial and temporal correlation with hydraulic fracturing activities, and the conclusion is that hydraulic fracturing induced earthquakes (M>3.0); (3) In the Groningen gas field in Netherlands, studies revealed strong correlation between induced seismicity and gas depletion starting from 1991 and identified a close link between induced seismicity and reservoir compaction resulting from extraction of gas. The conclusion is that the gas production induced the earthquake (ML3.6) in 2012, which significantly caused damage in the local area; (4) In Sichuan shale gas production field, China, studies suggest that both the long-term injection of wastewater and short-term shale gas hydraulic fracturing correlate with the increasing seismicity, there have been different views on the cause of sizable earthquakes (ML5.7, 5.3) occurring in late 2018 and early 2019 in the shale gas production area. Studying induced seismicity due to industry activities has been one of the major efforts and become a research field in the scientific community. Besides revealing spatial and temporal distributions of induced seismicity, this review summarizes analyses of induced earthquakes from seismology, geomechanics, and structural geology. Developing solutions to the mitigation of earthquake risk during industry activities has been another major effort. This review introduces various theoretical and practical approaches to address the subject, including induced seismicity monitoring and management system, probability estimation methods, and risk assessment using geophysical and geological data, and also presents suggestions to address the issues in China.
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图 1 三种可能的注水压裂诱发的断层活化（修改自Eyre et al., 2019a）
Figure 1. Three models proposed for fault activation due to hydraulic fracturing (modified from Eyre et al., 2019a)
图 2 三维莫尔圆和断层示意图（修改自Zoback, 2010）
Figure 2. The Mohr circle and the fault (modified from Zoback, 2010)
图 3 每月俄克拉何马州中部与西部废水回注量（SWD）与诱发地震数量的结合图. 每月废水注水量（2000年至2016年6月）（蓝色线），诱发地震随注水量变化而延迟几个月发生（绿色），较大地震的余震序列也显而易见. 红色线是注水深度3 km以下的压力变化（振幅归一化），2016以后的压力数据为预测. 每个较大地震发生出现的地震量峰值是余震响应的结果（修改自Langenbruch and Zoback, 2016）
Figure 3. Monthly injection rate (blue line) and number of induced earthquakes (green line) . The number of induced earthquakes varies with the injection rate and delayed several months, and we could observe the aftershock of the large earthquakes. The red line is the pressure variation bellow 3 km of the injection (Normalized amplitude). The pressure data after 2016 are the prediction. The peak value is related to the aftershocks (modified from Langenbruch and Zoback, 2016)
图 4 俄克拉何马州废盐水回注量与地震分布. 图中颜色背景对应于2009年至2015年12月期间废盐水回注地域与注水量（m3），注水量是以任何点半径0.5°（约8000 km2）内累计计算的. 1979～2008年3级以上地震是黑色点，2009年至2016年9月的3级以上地震是灰色点，4.5级以上较大地震是彩色，黑色实线与黑色虚线分别画出西部与中部地区（修改自Langenbruch and Zoback, 2016）
Figure 4. Salt water injection and earthquake distribution. The background color denotes the injection volume from 2009 to 2015. The injection volume is calculated by the accumulated amount of the radius of 0.5°. The black and gray dots are the earthquakes during 1979～2008 and 2009～Sep 2016. The color stars are the M4.5 earthquakes. The black line and dash line are corresponding to western and central areas (modified from Langenbruch and Zoback, 2016)
图 5 （a）地震事件的空间位置分布，虚线框为福克斯克里克地区，紫色区域为迪韦奈地层.（b）位于福克斯克里克西南的Crooked Lake地区方圆100 km累计震级大于2.5的地震事件，从2013年12月1日起，地震发生频率出现了陡增，与该地区第一起注水压裂活动同步发生（修改自Schultz et al., 2017）
Figure 5. (a) The earthquake distribution; dot line box denotes the Fox Creak area; purple area is Duvernay layer. (b) The M>2.5 earthquakes located in Crooked Lake, Fox Creek. The earthquake rate increases beginning from 1 Dec., 2013, which occurred at the same time with the first injection (modified from Schultz et al., 2017)
图 6 应用双差定位确定的地震活动地图. 深灰色区域为福克斯克里克镇，蓝色区域为科鲁科尔德湖，紫色区域为迪韦奈地层，圆环和线的组合图形代表水平井，与地震事件相关的水平井线段被加粗（修改自Schultz et al., 2017）
Figure 6. Apply the double difference method to locate the earthquakes. The dark gray area is Fox Creek; blue area is Crooked Lake, and the purple area is Duvernay layer; the circle and line figure denotes the horizontal well; the bold line denotes the horizontal well related to earthquakes (modified from Schultz et al., 2017)
图 7 在CLS区域的系列地震事件和水力压裂完井在时间上的分布.（a）检测到的地震（红色柱）和通过交叉相关方法计算得到的地震（蓝色柱）柱状图，带有颜色的虚线框代表水力压裂完井作业.（b）监测到的地震的矩震级（红色圆圈）和通过交叉相关方法计算得到的地震的矩震级（蓝色圆圈）与水平井段压裂的平均注入压力（灰色柱子）在时间上的对照.（c）产生时间较晚的系列地震与水平井段压裂的平均注入压力在时间上的对照（修改自Schultz et al., 2015）
Figure 7. The earthquake and hydraulic fracturing well distribution in CLS area. (a) The detected earthquakes (red) and the located earthquakes with cross correlation (blue), the colored dash box denotes the hydraulic fracturing well. (b) The monitoring of the earthquake moment magnitude and the moment magnitude calculated from cross correlation, which is compared with the injection pressure. (c) The comparison between the injection pressure and the delayed earthquake sequence (modified from Schultz et al., 2015)
图 8 来自于实验室实验以及数值模拟的结果：在流体注入的情形下，断层的摩擦性质的演化（修改自Cappa et al., 2019）
Figure 8. The simulated and laboratory experiment results: the friction feature evolution after injection (modified from Cappa et al., 2019)
图 9 格罗宁根天然气田每年开采量和诱发地震数量时间变化图.（a）1990～2000年期间开采量（蓝色）和大于1.5级的地震数量（红色）；（b）2001年之后的开采量（蓝色），大于1.5级地震数量（红色），以及大于2.5级的地震数量（绿色）. 虚线为根据实线所示的数据插值拟合得到的结果（修改自Vlek, 2019）
Figure 9. The gas extraction and number of induced earthquakes vs. time in Groningen gas field. (a) The gas extraction (blue) and the M>1.5 earthquakes (red) during 1990～2000; (b) The gas extraction after 2001 (blue), M>1.5 earthquakes (red), and the M>2.5 earthquakes (blue). The dash line is the interpolated result (modified from Vlek, 2019)
图 10 (a) 2013年4月1日至11月1日之间和2014年，地震密度差别（每平方公里地震个数）和开采量差别的空间分布图，其中绿色表示和2013年相比，2014年密度降低区域，红色表示升高区域. 黑色圆圈表示压力波10个月时间传播的距离（3.5 km）；（b）2013～2014年期间开采量差别的空间分布，其中绿色表示和2013年相比，2014年开采量减少区域，红色表示升高区域（修改自van Thienen-Visser and Breunese, 2015）
Figure 10. (a) The earthquake density and extraction amount difference distribution; the blue indicate the decreasing area of the comparison between 2013 and 2014; the red indicate the increasing area. The black circle indicates the propagation distance of the pressure after ten months (3.5 km); (b) The extraction different distribution during 2013～2014; the blue indicate the extraction decreased area of the comparison between 2013 and 2014; the red indicate the increasing area (modified from van Thienen-Visser and Breunese, 2015)
图 11 中国四川盆地及其周边的地震分布图. 灰色点代表1980～2013年期间2.5级以上的地震，彩色点代表2014～2016年期间1.5级以上的地震. 背景线条为该地区的活断层分布图. A（上罗）是本研究关注区域，B（威远）也是页岩气开发区域，C和D是两个废水回注的区域（修改自Lei et al., 2017）
Figure 11. The earthquake distribution around Sichuan Basin, China. The gray dot denotes the M>2.5 earthquakes during 1980～2013; the colored dot denotes the M>1.5 earthquakes during 2014～2016. The background line is the active fault. A (Shangluo) is the studying area; B(Weiyuan) is the gas production area; C and D are two injection area (modified from Lei et al., 2017)
图 12 长宁背斜区天然地震的投影及其构造地质背景（修改自何登发等，2019）
Figure 12. Projection and tectonic geological setting of natural earthquakes in Changning anticline area (modified from He et al., 2019)
图 13 不同地区或国家的红绿灯系统，在具体标准上都有很大不同（修改自Zoback and Kohli, 2019）
Figure 13. Traffic light systems in different regions or countries adopt very different specific standards (modified from Zoback and Kohli, 2019)
图 14 美国俄克拉何马州与堪萨斯州：2015～2020年基于物理模型的M≥4以上地震发生的概率预测. 本研究计算1257 km2（20 km半径）的区域里的一年的超越概率预测. 在做预测这一年已经发生的M≥3（灰色圆）和M≥4（黄色圆）地震显示在图中. 当地的地震风险是由其当地的压力增加以及孕震状态决定的. 2015～2020年期间的概率降低主要是由于减少注水量的原因，减缓了孕震带的压力增加. 地震风险的最大缓解区域是在尼马哈断层东部，那里注水量大幅度减少. 2018～2020年期间假设均衡的注水率. 该预测图可以根据未来注水情况的变化相应更新（修改自Langenbruch et al., 2018）
Figure 14. The Oklahoma and Kansas, US: The probability prediction based on the physical model of the M≥4 earthquakes during 2015～2020. The probability prediction is calculated in a 1257 km2 area in one year, and the M≥3 and M≥4 earthquakes are denoted in the figure. The local earthquake risk is determined by the stress increasing and state of earthquake preparation. The decreasing of 2015～2020 results from the decreasing of the injection. The largest decreasing area of the earthquake risk is the east part of Memaha fault, and the injection is decreased dramatically. The prediction figure could be updated according to the future injection condition (modified from Langenbruch et al., 2018)
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