• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P
尹凤玲,蒋长胜,姜丛. 年尺度地震预测模型的国际研究现状. 地球与行星物理论评,2021,52(1):54-60. DOI: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2020-002
引用本文: 尹凤玲,蒋长胜,姜丛. 年尺度地震预测模型的国际研究现状. 地球与行星物理论评,2021,52(1):54-60. DOI: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2020-002
Yin F L, Jiang C S, Jiang C. Research progress of next-year earthquake forecasts in the world. Reviews of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 2021, 52(1):54-60. DOI: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2020-002
Citation: Yin F L, Jiang C S, Jiang C. Research progress of next-year earthquake forecasts in the world. Reviews of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, 2021, 52(1):54-60. DOI: 10.19975/j.dqyxx.2020-002

年尺度地震预测模型的国际研究现状

Research progress of next-year earthquake forecasts in the world

  • 摘要: 对未来1年内发生强震的预测在做好备灾应急准备和防震减灾工作上具有重要的现实需求.为反映近年来国际上关于1年尺度地震预测模型研究的进展,本文系统地整理了地震的统计概率预测模型、物理预测模型和混合预测模型,并从方法原理、预测效能评价、部署应用等角度进行了梳理.研究表明,目前国际上发展的1年尺度地震预测模型及其效能评价使用的参考模型的总体数量较少、建模原理主要基于G-R关系等统计学基本定律,显示该领域在基础理论架构、关键技术体系上并未足够成熟,这可能与相应的地震发生机理解释尚不完善、建立数理化的预测模型尚有困难等因素有关.

     

    Abstract: The next-year earthquake forecasts have an important practical demand in preparedness and mitigation of earthquake disasters. In order to reflect the research progress of 1-year earthquake forecast models in the world in recent years, we systematically organized the earthquake probabilistic forecast models, physics-based forecast models and hybrid forecast models, and analyzed them from the perspectives of method principle, evaluation of forecasting efficiency, deployment and application. The results show that the total number of 1-year earthquake forecast models and their reference models in the world is relatively small. Moreover, the modeling principle is mainly based on the basic laws of statistical seismology such as the G-R relationship, which indicates that the basic theoretical framework and key technical system of earthquake forecasts has not been mature enough. It may be related to the imperfect interpretation of the corresponding earthquake seismogenic mechanism and the difficulties of the establishment of physics-based forecast models.

     

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