• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P

基于回归算法和大数据云基础设施的美国加利福尼亚州地震预测

G. Asencio-Cortés A. Morales-Esteban X. Shang F. Martínez-Álvarez 李帛珊 李金 张天中

引用本文: 李帛珊, 李金 译. 2020. 基于回归算法和大数据云基础设施的美国加利福尼亚州地震预测. 世界地震译丛. 51(1):33-53. doi:10.16738/j.cnki.issn.1003-3238.202001003
G. Asencio-Cortés, A. Morales-Esteban, X. Shang, F. Martínez-Álvarez. 2018. Earthquake prediction in California using regression algorithms and cloud-based big data infrastructure. Comput.Geosci. 115:198-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2017.10.011

基于回归算法和大数据云基础设施的美国加利福尼亚州地震预测

doi: 10.16738/j.cnki.issn.1003-3238.202001003
基金项目: 

本译文由中国地震局地震科技星火计划项目(XH17041Y)资助

Earthquake prediction in California using regression algorithms and cloud-based big data infrastructure

  • 摘要: 地震震级预测是近几十年来广泛研究的极具挑战性的问题,在文献中可以找到统计、地球物理和机器学习等研究方法,但并没有得出令人特别满意的结果。近年来,强大的大数据分析计算技术应运而生,使得海量数据分析成为可能。新方法利用了云体系等物理资源。美国加利福尼亚州是世界上地震活动最活跃的地区之一,有许多可用数据。在本项工作中,为了预测未来7天内的地震震级,在大数据(使用1GB目录)情景下,探索几种回归算法与集成学习相结合的方法。使用Apache Spark框架、R语言的H2O库和亚马逊(Amazon)云基础设施,得到了极有希望的结果。

     

  • [1] Asencio-Cortés,G.,Martínez-Álvarez,F.,Morales-Esteban,A.,Reyes,J.,2016.A sensitivity study of seismicity indicators in supervised learning to improve earthquake prediction.Knowledge-Ba-sed Syst.101,15-30.
    [2] Asencio-Cortés,G.,Martínez-Álvarez,F.,Morales-Esteban,A.,Troncoso,A.,2017.Medium-large earthquake magnitude prediction in Tokyo with artificial neural networks.Neural Comput.Appl.28(5),1043-1055.
    [3] Asencio-Cortés,Gualberto,Scitovski,Sanja,Scitov-ski,Rudolf,Martínez-Álvarez,Francisco,2017.Temporal analysis of croatian seismogenic zones to improve earthquake magnitude prediction.Earth Sci.Inf.1-18.
    [4] Asim,K.M.,Martínez-Álvarez,F.,Basit,A.,Iqbal,T.,2017.Earthquake magnitude prediction in hindukush region using machine learning techniques.Nat.Hazards 85(1),471-486.
    [5] Aven,T.,2010.On how to define,understand and describe risk.Reliab.Eng.Syst.Saf.95(6),623-631.
    [6] Bakun,W.H.,Aagaard,B.,Dost,B.,Ellsworth,W.L.,Hardebeck,J.L.,Harris,R.A.,Ji,C.,John-ston,M.J.S.,Langbein,J.,Lienkaemper,J.J.,Michael,A.J.,Murray,J.R.,Nadeau,R.M.,Reasenberg,P.A.,Reichle,M.S.,Roeloffs,E.A.,Shakal,A.,Simpson,R.W.,Waldhauser,F.,2005.Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.Nature 437,969-974.
    [7] Bird,P.,Liu,Z.,2007.Seismic hazard inferred from tectonics:California.Seismol.Res.Lett.78(1),37-48.
    [8] Buscema,P.M.,Massini,G.,Maurelli,G.,2015.Artificial Adaptive Systems to predict the magni-tude of earthquakes.Boll.Geofis.Teor.Appl.56(2),227-256.
    [9] Cecioni,C.,Bellotti,G.,Romano,A.,Abdolali,A.,Sammarco,P.,Franco,L.,2014.Tsunami early warning system based on real-time measure-ments of hydro-acoustic waves.Procedia Eng.70,311-320.
    [10] Console,R.,Murru,M.,Catalli,F.,Falcone,G.,2007.Real time forecasts through an earthquake clustering model constrained by the rate-and-state constitutive law:comparison with a purely stochastic ETAS model.Seismol.Res.Lett.78(1),49-56.
    [11] Ebel,J.E.,Chambers,D.W.,Kafka,A.L.,Baglivo,J.A.,2007.Non-poissonian earthquake clustering and the hidden Markov model as bases for earthquake forecasting in California.Seismollo-gical Res.Lett.78(1),57-65.
    [12] Fernández-Gómez,Manuel Jesús,Asencio-Cortés,Gualberto,Troncoso,Alicia,Martínez-Álvarez,Francisco,2017.Large earthquake magnitude prediction in Chile with imbalanced classifiers and ensemble learning.Appl.Sci.7(6),625.
    [13] Florido,E.,Martínez-Álvarez,F.,Morales-Esteban,A.,Reyes,J.,Aznarte,J.L.,2015.Detecting precursory patterns to enhance earthquake predic-tion in Chile.Comput.Geosciences 76,112-120.
    [14] Florido,E.,Aznarte,J.L.,Morales-Esteban,A.,Martínez-Álvarez,F.,2016.Earthquake magni-tude prediction based on artificial neural networks:a survey.Croat.Operational Res.Rev.7(2),687-700.
    [15] Gerstenberguer,M.C.,Jones,L.M.,Wiemer,S.,2007.Short-term aftershock probabilities:case studies in California.Seismol.Res.Lett.78(1),66-77.
    [16] Gutenberg,B.,Richter,C.F.,1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.34,185-188.
    [17] Helmstetter,A.,Kagan,Y.Y.,Jackson,D.D.,2007.High-resolution time-independent gridbased fore-cast for M=5 earthquakes in California.Seis-mol.Res.Lett.78(1),78-86.
    [18] Jackson,J.C.,Vijayakumar,V.,Quadir,A.,Bha-rathi,C.,2015.Survey on programming models and environments for cluster,cloud,and grid computing that defends big data.Procedia Comput.Sci.50,517-523.
    [19] Kagan,Y.Y.,Jackson,D.D.,Rong,Y.,2007.A testable five-year forecast of moderate and large earthquakes in southern California based on smoothed seismicity.Seismol.Res.Lett.78(1),94-98.
    [20] Keefer,D.K.,1984.Lansdlides caused by earth-quakes.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.95(4),406-421.
    [21] Martínez-Álvarez,F.,Troncoso,A.,Morales-Este-ban,A.,Riquelme,J.C.,2011.Computational intelligence techniques for predicting earthquakes.Lect.Notes Artif.Intell.6679(2),287-294.
    [22] Martínez-Álvarez,F.,Reyes,J.,Morales-Esteban,A.,Rubio-Escudero,C.,2013.Determining the best set of seismicity indicators to predict earthquakes.Two case studies:Chile and the Iberian Peninsula.Knowledge-Based Syst.50,198-210.
    [23] Matsuzawa,T.,Igarashi,T.,Hasegawa,A.A.,2002.Characteristic small-earthquake sequence off Sanriku,northeastern Honshu,Japan.Geophys.Res.Lett.29(11),38-1-38-4.
    [24] Morales-Esteban,A.,Martínez-Álvarez,F.,Tron-coso,A.,de Justo,J.L.,Rubio-Escudero,C.,2010.Pattern recognition to forecast seismic time series.Expert Syst.Appl.37(12),8333-8342.
    [25] Morales-Esteban,A.,Martínez-Álvarez,F.,Reyes,J.,2013.Earthquake prediction in seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula based on computational intelligence.Tectonophysics 593,121-134.
    [26] Nuannin,P.,2006.The Potential of b-value Varia-tions as Earthquake Precursors for Small and Large Events.Technical Report 183.Uppsala University,Sweden.
    [27] Nuannin,P.,Kulhanek,O.,Persson,L.,2005.Spatial and temporal b value anomalies preceding the devastating off coast of nw sumatra earthquake of december 26,2004.Geophys.Res.Lett.32.
    [28] Panakkat,A.,Adeli,H.,2007.Neural network models for earthquake magnitude prediction using multiple seismicity indicators.Int.J.Neural Syst.17(1),13-33.
    [29] Petersen,M.D.,Cao,T.,Campbell,K.W.,Frankel,A.D.,2007.Time-independent and time-depen-dent seismic hazard assessment for the state of California:uniform California earthquake rup-ture forecast model 1.0.Seismol.Res.Lett.78(1),99-109.
    [30] Reyes,J.,Morales-Esteban,A.,Martínez-Álvarez,F.,2013.Neural networks to predict earth-quakes in Chile.Appl.Soft Comput.13(2),1314-1328.
    [31] Rhoades,D.A.,2007.Application of the EEPAS model to forecasting earthquakes of moderate magnitude in southern California.Seismol.Res.Lett.78(1),110-115.
    [32] Romão,X.,Paupério,E.,Pereira,N.,2014.A framework for the simplified risk analysis of cultural heritage assets.J.Cult.Herit.20,696-708.
    [33] Rouet-Leduc,Bertrand,Hulbert,Claudia,Lubbers,Nicholas,Barros,Kipton,Humphreys,Colin,Johnson,Paul A.,2017.Machine Learning Predicts Laboratory Earthquakes.arXiv preprint arXiv:1702.05774.
    [34] Sá,L.F.,Morales-Esteban,A.,Durand,P.,2016.A seismic risk simulator for iberia.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.106(3),1198-1209.
    [35] Shahi,Shrey K.,Baker,Jack W.,2011.Regression models for predicting the probability of near-fault earthquake ground motion pulses,and their period.Appl.Statistics Probab.Civ.Eng.30(4),459.
    [36] Shen,Z.Z.,Jackson,D.D.,Kagan,Y.Y.,2007.Implications of geodetic strain rate for future earthquakes,with a five-year forecast of M5 earthquakes in southern California.Seismol.Res.Lett.78(1),116-120.
    [37] Spicák,A.,Vanek,J.,2016.Earthquake swarms reveal submarine magma unrest induced by distant mega-earthquakes:Andaman Sea region.J.Asian Earth Sci.116,155-163.
    [38] Tiampo,K.F.,Shcherbakov,R.,2012.Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques:ten years of progress.Tectonophysics 522-523,89-121.
    [39] Tsai,C.W.,Lai,C.F.,Chao,H.C.,Vasilakos,A.V.,2015.Big data analytics:a survey.J.Big Data 2(21),1-32.
    [40] UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory,2014.United States Geological Survey(USGS).Calpine and Unocal Corporations.Northern California earthquake data center.
    [41] Verdugo,R.,Gonzalez,J.,2015.Liquefaction-induced ground damages during the 2010 Chile earthquake.Soil Dyn.Earthq.Eng.79(B),280-295.
    [42] Wang,Q.,Jackson,D.D.,Kagan,Y.Y.,2009.California earthquakes,1800-2007:a unified cata-log with moment magnitudes,uncertainties,and focal mechanisms.Seismol.Res.Lett.80(3),446-457.
    [43] Ward,S.N.,2007.Methods for evaluating earthquake potential and likelihood in and around Cali-fornia.Seismol.Res.Lett.78(1),121-133.
    [44] Zhang,S.D.,2004.The 1999 Xiuyen-haichung,Liao-ning,M5.4 Earthquake.Beijing Seismological Press.
  • 加载中
计量
  • 文章访问数:  633
  • HTML全文浏览量:  174
  • PDF下载量:  40
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回