• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P

面向风险世界的科学——美国地质调查局风险研究与应用计划

K. A. Ludwig D. W. Ramsey N. J. Wood A. B. Pennaz J. W. Godt N. G. Plant N. Luco T. A. Koenig K. W. Hudnut D. K. Davis P. R. Bright 司政亚 姜丛 王骞 高孟潭 蒋长胜

引用本文: 司政亚, 姜丛, 王骞 译. 2020. 面向风险世界的科学——美国地质调查局风险研究与应用计划.世界地震译丛.51(6):591-647. doi:10.16738/j.cnki.issn.1003-3238.202006001

面向风险世界的科学——美国地质调查局风险研究与应用计划

基金项目: 

本译文由中国地震局2020年重大政策理论与实践问题研究课题《美、欧、日地震科技政策比较研究及相关建议》资助

  • 摘要: 自然灾害(包括地震、海啸、火山喷发、滑坡、飓风、干旱、洪水、山火、地磁暴和流行病)会在灾害事件发生后的数年内给人类社区、经济和自然资源造成破坏。灾害能夺去生命,造成数十亿美元的房屋和基础设施损坏、经济活动损失以及威胁国家安全。灾害还可能对环境、社会、经济和健康造成不利影响,其影响范围远超直接作用区域,甚至波及全球。人口增长、气候和城市化的变化可能加剧灾害影响。
    由于灾害事件的潜在危害性,减轻社会重要资产的灾害损失风险是包括决策者、社区成员、应急管理者、资源管理者、公用设施运营者、企业家、规划制定人员在内的所有人的当务之急。利益相关者需要获取有效的、以用户为中心的信息以支持决策,以更具适应性和成本效益的方式,规划一个能够对突发事件及时应对和具备韧弹性的未来。
    为满足这一需求,需要最大限度地利用环境监测、灾害科学,以及对传播、社会压力和人类行为的研究,以决策者和公众均可理解的形式提供风险信息。为实现这一目标,科学家和利益相关者必须合作,利用技术进步来改善信息获取和传播的效果,同时利用可付诸实践的见解、研究、产品和工具来满足社区需求。
    美国地质调查局风险研究与应用计划
    科学界对风险研究与应用的新需求、日益增长的公众期望和技术进步的共同作用,为美国地质调查局(USGS)创造了利用科学数据与相关研究增强国家应对灾害和备灾能力上做出贡献的机会。USGS制定了有关加强能力建设的计划,以促进发布更具可操作性的减轻风险信息的能力提升。尽管该计划主要针对USGS的科研人员、管理人员和领导层,但它也确定了与外部从事减轻风险的合作伙伴的新合作机会。
    USGS的风险研究与应用包括危险性评估、可操作性预测和预警、脆弱性评估、风险评估、风险沟通、决策支持系统以及灾后评估。USGS风险研究与应用的目标是提供分析基础,决策者可以在此基础上整合信息、资产、能力和优先级,以做出基于科学的决策。
    开发USGS风险产品是一个反复的过程,它依赖于USGS的三个核心能力:(1)合作伙伴的参与和拓展;(2)研究;(3)工具及产品开发。USGS的物理学家、社会学家、分析师、工程师、程序员、通讯和公共事务专家以及管理者,都对以上三个核心能力做出了相应的贡献。值得注意的是,USGS注重与合作伙伴在研究、产品开发、产品评估等信息传递环节保持紧密联系,以便能够向合作伙伴提供支撑信息、制定可行的减轻风险的决策。
    计划目标
    该计划旨在发起和运行一个专注于风险研究与应用的实践社群,以改善整个USGS的内部沟通、协作和资源共享。实践社群将允许USGS的科学家和工作人员参与整体的风险研究与应用(跨任务区、项目和科学中心),以克服现有的地理和学科合作障碍。重要的是,该计划为确保风险研究与应用得到优先支持并纳入USGS的工作机制提供了具体的建议。建议的内容涵盖了从连接和协调USGS的专业技术和资源的新途径,到培训、指导以及定期召集科学家和利益相关者进行产品开发等多个环节。这些建议还关注了在专业技术、产品交付和扩大信息技术能力等领域中的能力提升需求。
    在整个计划中,采用案例研究的方式强调了USGS的风险研究与应用是如何采用有意义的方式与利益相关者建立联系、利用现有投资、克服挑战并抓住机遇。一系列新的项目构思,设计了如何将该计划的目标体现在未来的投资中,包括在社区、区域和国家框架下评估多种灾害和风险的工具、公共土地风险评估,以及用于提高对具有多重后果事件的态势感知的产品。
    该计划以《美国地质调查局自然灾害科学战略—促进国家安全、保障和经济福祉》(Holmes and others,2013)战略研究报告中所述的优先事项为基础,特别关注了灾害危险性与社会价值相互作用的风险。这项工作的目标不是让USGS从事风险研究与应用的科学家和工作人员替合作伙伴做出决策。相反,USGS的科学家和工作人员应充当听众、传达者、协助者和科学指导的角色,通过提供客观和公正的科学知识来改善灾害对动态世界的社会影响。

     

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