• ISSN 2097-1893
    • CN 10-1855/P

    基于随机有限断层法的2025年西藏定日Mw7.1地震强地震动模拟

    Simulation of strong ground motions for the MW7.1 Dingri, Xizang earthquake in 2025 using the stochastic finite-fault methodology

    • 摘要: 2025年1月7日西藏定日发生 M_\mathrmW 7.1地震,造成震中周缘严重的地震破坏. 为科学重构此次地震的地震动影响场,本文基于随机有限断层法,结合震源破裂过程反演结果建立了强地震动模拟模型. 针对关键敏感参数进行系统研究,通过对比30次随机过程均值与预警台站实测记录的拟加速度反应谱(PSA)残差,确定最优应力降为10.0 MPa,并基于场地 V_\mathrmS30 负相关特征估计高频衰减参数 \kappa 值为0.0326. 在完成震源、路径及场地参数校准的基础上,利用国家地震烈度速报与预警工程的实测资料开展信度检验,产出了网格化的峰值加速度(PGA)及仪器地震烈度分布,进而探讨其破裂方向效应、上下盘效应及其分布特征. 研究结果表明:(1)在5%阻尼比条件下,拟加速度反应谱(PSA)模拟值与观测记录在0.04~4.00秒周期范围内幅值匹配良好、谱形较为吻合,其PSA残差主要处于在±1.0范围内,表明该模型在地震动模拟中具有较好的可靠性和适用性. (2)在定日MW7.1地震模拟中,地震动强度等值线呈椭圆形分布,震中附近PGA极值约为1184.3 Gal,仪器地震烈度达9.6度,与观测资料具有较好的一致性. (3)地震动强度场在符合地震动衰减基本规律的同时,还较为清晰的呈现出破裂方向性效应和上下盘效应.

       

      Abstract: On January 7, 2025, an M_\mathrmW 7.1 earthquake struck Dingri, Xizang, causing severe engineering damage in the epicentral area. To scientifically reconstruct the ground motion impact field of this event, a strong ground motion simulation model was established based on the stochastic finite-fault method, incorporating the inverted source rupture process. A systematic study on key sensitive parameters was conducted: by comparing the mean values of 30 stochastic realizations with the pseudo-acceleration spectra (PSA) recorded at early warning stations, the optimal stress drop was determined to be 10.0 MPa; meanwhile, the high-frequency attenuation parameter (\kappa ) was estimated as 0.0326 based on the negative correlation between its median value and site V_\mathrmS30 . After calibrating the source, path, and site parameters, a reliability test was performed using observational data from the National Seismic Intensity Management and Early Warning Project. Consequently, the gridded distributions of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and instrumental seismic intensity were generated, and the spatial distribution characteristics and formation mechanisms of the strong ground motion field were quantitatively discussed. The results indicate that: (1) Under a 5% damping ratio, the simulated PSA values match the observations well in both amplitude and spectral shape within the period range of 0.04–4.00 s. The residuals mainly fall within the range of \pm 1.0 without significant period dependence, verifying the reliability of the model in the complex crustal environment of the southern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. (2) The simulated ground motion intensity isovalues exhibit a nearly north-south elliptical distribution. The peak PGA near the epicenter reaches 1184.3 Gal, with a calculated instrumental seismic intensity of 9.6. While covering the actual seismic damage risk, the simulation results show good consistency with both macro-seismic investigations and instrumental observations. (3) The ground motion intensity field clearly demonstrates significant rupture directivity and hanging-wall effects. Specifically, the PGA in the forward rupture direction (northward) is approximately 1.82 times that in the backward direction, and the PGA on the hanging wall is amplified by approximately 1.85 times compared to the footwall. These refined spatial distribution characteristics provide a dynamic basis for explaining macro-seismic damage variations and offer important scientific references for the seismic design of rural buildings and emergency response in southern Xizang.

       

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