• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P

地球辐射带电子数据同化建模研究进展

Research advances in the data assimilative modeling of the Earth's radiation belt electrons

  • 摘要: 地球辐射带是近地空间高能带电粒子的聚集区域. 由于辐射带中的高能粒子对在轨航天器和宇航员的安全构成严重威胁,深入理解辐射带粒子的时空动态演化过程显得至关重要. 数据同化方法能够将卫星观测与数值模拟结果有机结合,从而实现对辐射带粒子时空演化过程的重构. 本文系统总结了近年来在地球辐射带电子数据同化建模方面的研究成果. 首先,详细介绍了基于卡尔曼滤波方法的外辐射带电子三维数据同化模型(three-dimensional data assimilative model of outer radiation belt electrons, TDAMORE). 依托TDAMORE模型,开展了基于Van Allen Probes、Arase和FY-4A等不同轨道类型卫星观测数据的辐射带电子同化建模研究. 该同化模型充分发挥了卫星观测与数值模型的各自优势,成功重构了外辐射带区域(L=3~7)不同能量与投掷角电子的短期与长期动态演化过程及其对地磁活动的响应特征. 基于同化结果,进一步开展了磁暴期间辐射带电子通量的预测研究,并对模型的预测性能进行了评估. 最后,本文对辐射带同化模型的未来发展方向和潜在应用场景进行了探讨和展望.

     

    Abstract: The Earth's radiation belts are regions where high-energy charged particles congregate in near-Earth space. Given that high-energy particles in the radiation belts pose a severe threat to the safety of spacecraft in orbit and astronauts, it is of vital importance to gain a thorough understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of radiation belt particles. Data assimilation method can effectively integrate satellite observations with numerical simulation results, thereby enabling the reconstruction of the spatiotemporal evolution process of radiation belt electrons. This paper systematically summarizes the research achievements in data assimilation modeling of the Earth's radiation belt electrons in recent years. First, we provide a detailed introduction to the three-dimensional data assimilative model of outer radiation belt electrons (TDAMORE), which is based on the Kalman filter method. Building on TDAMORE, further research on data assimilation modeling of radiation belt electrons is carried out using observational data from satellites of different orbital types, such as Van Allen Probes, Arase, and FY-4A. This assimilation model fully leverages the respective strengths of satellite observations and numerical models, successfully reconstructing the short-term and long-term dynamic evolution processes of electrons with different energies and pitch angles in the outer radiation belt region (L=3-7), as well as their response characteristics to geomagnetic activity. Based on the assimilation results, further research on predicting the flux of radiation belt electrons during geomagnetic storms is conducted, and the predictive performance of the model is evaluated. Finally, this paper discusses and looks ahead to the future development directions and potential application scenarios of radiation belt assimilation models.

     

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