• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P

基于CNN-LSTM的临近空间温度预报研究

Research on temperature forecasting in near space based on CNN-LSTM algorithm

  • 摘要: 临近空间是指地球大气层与太空之间的复杂过渡区域,其高度介于20~100 km,包括平流层、中间层和低热层,是地球大气系统的重要组成部分. 临近空间不仅受对流层小尺度扰动影响并且受到中高层大气行星波等影响,另外在该区域中存在大气动力学过程以及各层大气之间的物理化学作用,这使得对临近空间的研究变得困难. 国内外学者应用机器学习与深度学习算法在空间物理领域进行了大量的研究,并取得了较好的成果. 但由于大气环境的复杂多变,在临近空间中利用深度学习算法对环境温度进行预报的工作研究较少. 研究临近空间的温度预报对理解大气动力学过程、大气跨圈层耦合以及分析大气波动有重要的科学意义. 基于MERRA-2再分析数据集,本文采用卷积神经网络-长短期记忆网络(CNN-LSTM)算法对临近空间温度进行窗口为7天的预报,其CNN部分能够有效提取空间特征,LSTM部分能够捕捉时间依赖关系. 预报结果与原始数据相比,相对误差控制在2%以内. 在此基础上,对该算法在季节、高度和纬度上的敏感性展开研究. 分析结果显示北半球夏季和秋季的预报效果更好,且在低纬度区域预报模型的准确性也较为可靠.

     

    Abstract: Near space refers to the complex transition region between the Earth's atmosphere and space, with its height between 20-100 km, including the stratosphere, the mesosphere and the lower thermosphere which are important components of the Earth's atmospheric system. The near space is affected not only by small-scale disturbances in the troposphere but also by planetary waves in the middle and upper atmosphere. There are also atmospheric dynamic processes in the region and physical and chemical interactions between layers of the atmosphere, which make the study of near space difficult. Scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on the application of machine learning and deep learning algorithms in the field of space physics, and achieved good results. However, due to the complexity and variability of atmospheric environment, there is little research on using deep learning algorithm to forecast environmental temperature in near space. The study of temperature forecasting in near space is of great scientific significance for understanding atmospheric dynamics, cross-layer coupling and analyzing atmospheric fluctuations. In this paper, CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to forecast temperature in near space based on MERRA-2 datasets. The CNN part can effectively extract spatial features and the LSTM part can capture temporal dependencies. Its output window is 7 days, and the relative error is controlled within 2% compared with the original data. On this basis, we do some research on the sensitivity of the algorithm in season, altitude and latitude. The results show that in summer and autumn of the Northern Hemisphere, the forecast results are better, and the accuracy of the forecast model is more reliable at low latitudes.

     

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