• ISSN 2097-1893
  • CN 10-1855/P

基于安徽合肥MS4.7地震快速估计本地区MS6.0设定地震加速度时程及其破坏能力

Rapid estimation of MS6.0 scenario earthquake acceleration waveform and its destructive capacity in local area based on the MS4.7 earthquake in Anhui Province

  • 摘要: 2024年9月18日,安徽省合肥市发生MS4.7地震,造成了一定的建筑损坏和社会恐慌,这是2024年合肥地区发生的最大震级的地震. 在自媒体高度发达的今天,东部沿海地区发生轻微破坏性地震引起的社会关注度居高不下,尤其是该地震发生在郯庐地震带南段,2024年以来发生过多次3级左右的小地震. 如果这次地震的震级不是MS4.7而是MS6.0会怎样呢?随着中国地震监测能力的大幅提升,可以比较完整地记录此次MS4.7地震的波形数据. 经验格林函数方法可以利用小震波形作为格林函数合成大地震的地震动,而这个MS4.7的地震恰好比较符合该方法选择小震作为格林函数的标准. 本文拟采用本次MS4.7地震作为格林函数,采用经验格林函数方法作为模拟工具,从地震应急角度快速估计一次MS6.0设定地震在合肥地区的7个台站处的加速度波形,并分析本次设定地震在确定的建筑模型中的震害响应及破坏能力. 结果表明:如果本次地震的震级是MS6.0,将会在肥东地区展示出较强的破坏能力,PGA值在震中距30 km内会出现0.25~0.6 g幅值,建筑物存在严重破坏的风险,尤其是对于当地的老旧建筑和高层建筑. 本研究是一次从地震应急角度进行的强震地面运动特征估计和建筑震害分析的尝试,相关结果也可以为当地的抗震设计及地震应急产品等提供参考.

     

    Abstract: On September 18, 2024, the MS4.7 earthquake occurred in Hefei, Anhui Province, causing certain building damage and social panic. This was the largest earthquake of magnitude to occur in the Hefei area in 2024. In today's highly developed self-media, the social attention caused by minor destructive earthquakes in the eastern coastal regions remains high, especially the earthquake in the southern section of the Tanlu earthquake zone, where several small earthquakes of around MS3.0 have occurred recently. What if the magnitude of this earthquake is not MS4.7 but MS6.0? With the significant improvement of China's earthquake monitoring capabilities, the waveform data of this earthquake can be recorded relatively completely. The empirical Green's function method can use small earthquake waveforms as Green's functions to synthesize the seismic motion of large earthquakes, and this MS4.7 earthquake happens to meet the criteria for selecting small earthquakes as Green's functions in this method. This article intends to use the MS4.7 earthquake as Green's function and the empirical Green's function method as the simulation tool to quickly estimate the acceleration waveform of a set MS6.0 earthquake at seven stations in the Hefei area from the perspective of earthquake emergency and analyze the seismic damage response and destructive capacity of this set earthquake in a determined building model. The results indicate that if the magnitude of this earthquake is MS6.0, it will demonstrate strong destructive power in the Feidong area, with PGA values ranging from 0.25–0.6 g within a distance of 30 km from the epicenter. There is a risk of serious damage to the building, especially for old and high-rise buildings in the area. This study attempts to estimate the characteristics of strong earthquake ground motion and analyze building damage from the perspective of earthquake emergency response. The relevant results can also provide a reference for local seismic design and earthquake emergency products.

     

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